Billmon weighs the odds

Whiskey Bar: Market Update: "Given the size and power of the forces we face -- the GOP machine, Big Media, the national security Leviathan, the corporate bribemasters -- it seems obvious that only a major upheaval, on the order of FDR's landslide 1932 election -- has any chance of changing the country's direction in any fundamental way. I'm not even sure that kind of change is even possible any more, but I'm reasonably sure it's not going to happen just because the Dems manage to win back a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives this November. Part of me thinks it would be better to stay completely of power until there is a tidal wave of popular discontent -- even desperation -- that will wash the GOP and the authoritarian right out of power for a generation."

Billmon reflects on the news that the London bookmakers now give the odds of the Democrats winning the house as even odds, while rating the chances of a Democratic Senate only around 20%. This reflects understanding of the expert pollsters' interpretation. I have read through the list of contestable seats for the House and Senate, and agree that this estimation appears to be fair.

It is interesting to me that Stirling Newberry has fantasized about the possibility that the GOP gerrymander will prevent the Democrats from winning back the House. And, here is the Billmon wondering if that might not be a good thing. Put a cork in it, and hope for a big explosion.

I actually regard the possibility of a razor-thin margin in the House as a good thing, because liberals Democrats will be in leadership positions, but, unable to pass legislation, they will naturally turn their attentions to investigation. Billmon wishes for independent prosecutors, but there is no such thing. The House will have to do.

A thin majority in the House is not a position of political power, but it does create an investigative power, and places it in the hands of people, who, unlike Senators, are not accustomed to thinking of themselves as Presidential timber. That is reason for cautious optimism.

Digby warns, you listen

Hullabaloo: "US democracy may, just may, right itself when Bush's presidency is over. But if the next president is anything like this one... God help us. "

This is the problem. If the Media and Congress is so corrupt, that nothing this President does, rouses them from their stupor, there will be no political Storm, no aroused populace learning the error of their ways. And, the American Republic may well be lost, replaced by a rapidly decaying Empire ruled by and for a bunch of stupid, selfish plutocrats and their hangers-on.

General Glut's Globblog: Another inflation post

General Glut's Globblog: Another inflation post: "I wonder, in fact, if contined Fed tightening combined with a drop in oil prices -- say to the low $50s/barrel -- might shake what little general inflation exists right now completely out of the economy."

uh-oh.

Why uh-oh? Deflation is a very, very bad thing. The very short version is that deflation makes savings, without investment, rewarding, so it is possible to have very sharp declines in consumption, investment and asset prices, as people hold on to their cash. It can be very unpleasant.

Calculated Risk: Gasoline: Demand Strong, Inventories Drop

Calculated Risk: Gasoline: Demand Strong, Inventories Drop: "Gasoline stocks have continued to drop and are now near the bottom of the normal range."

Uh-oh.

We're Not in Watergate Anymore - New York Times

We're Not in Watergate Anymore - New York Times: "Should a journalist protect a sleazy, possibly even criminal, source? Yes, sometimes, if the public is to get news of wrongdoing. "

Judith Miller delivered news, which WAS wrongdoing.

Billmon

Billmon: "I've watched, first with amazement, then with a kind of morbid fascination, as Glassman has continued his flourishing and no doubt lucrative career as a financial pundit and supply-side snake-oil salesman, instead of being banished to the get-rich-quick infomercials on late night cable, which is where he belongs. "

The apparent collapse of our collective intelligence, over the last 25 years, is a real concern to me. I don't think Republicans were always this stupid. Democrats, either.

The Stain of Torture

The Stain of Torture: "Torture demonstrates weakness, not strength. It does not show understanding, power or magnanimity. It is not leadership. It is a reaction of government officials overwhelmed by fear who succumb to conduct unworthy of them and of the citizens of the United States."