Thursday, March 31, 2005

Eschaton

Eschaton: "The success in selling the idea that the level of the top marginal tax rate, which impacts a small percentage of the population, has some giant impact on the aggregate economy is stunning."

The actual effect on the economy has been stunning, but not positive. It has been a disaster, with corporate compensation soaring into the stratosphere, and most of that money coming out of the muscle and sinew of the American corporation.

Make greed pay better, and you get a lot more greed. The kinds of people, who seek the top corporate jobs, and the ruthlessness with which they seek them, has changed, with very real, very serious consequences for this country.

Income tax rates and Economic Growth

Eschaton: "The success in selling the idea that the level of the top marginal tax rate, which impacts a small percentage of the population, has some giant impact on the aggregate economy is stunning."

The top tax rate does have a huge impact on the economy. Enormous. That tax rate affects a small number of people, but they are the elite, the captains of industry, etc. Only a small number are window dressing -- hollywood actors and the like. Most are very powerful people.

The problem, here, is that the effect of changing the top marginal tax rate -- which was 70% at the end of the 1960's and is, today, somewhere between 12% and 35% -- was mostly NOT positive. It did diddly for economic growth. But, it has encouraged a lot of short-sighted corporate behavior. Make greed pay better, and you get a lot more greed.

Democrats need to make the connection between the huge growth in top corporate salaries since 1980, and the hollowing out of American corporations; between tax cuts for the rich and the grinding into dust of the American two-wage-earner family.

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Matthew Yglesias: First Things First

Matthew Yglesias: First Things First: "A short-term withdrawal is important largely for somewhat symbolic purposes -- to make it clear that as Iraqi troops are trained, American troops will be sent home, and that the whole process is on the up-and-up."

There really ought to be a term for intellectual deterioration. Young Matthew is much too Young, for Alzheimer's. So what diagnosis should we give to his "thinking" on Iraq policy?

It's the quality of thinking, which I wish to question, not Iraq Policy. I don't understand our Iraq Policy; no one asked me in advance, or at any point since. I could not tell you what the Bush Administration's goals are in Iraq; they have not shared them with the world at large. I am well past the point at which I would presume, as I might have with previous Administrations going back to FDR (including even Reagan and Nixon), that the Bushies are well-intentioned and share "my" American values. I might note that the reconstruction of Iraq is largely forgotten amidst revelations of corruption and incompetence and torture.

Matthew complains about the Bush strategy of conditioning withdrawal on "if conditions allow" without ever noticing that we are now reduced to treating events in Iraq as if they are akin to the weather, something over which we have no control.

Matthew recommends a "symbolic" withdrawal. Are our troops there for a symbolic purpose? Have troop levels been chosen for a symbolic purpose?

All of this "thinking" is foggy soup. The Bush Administration needs to tell us why we are in Iraq. Bush needs to tell us what his goal is. The point of a strategy is applying means to ends. If the U.S. has a goal, it might be able to marshal the means to achieve that goal. But without a goal, we are just waiting around for failure.

"If conditions allow" is total crap. The U.S. is spending $200 billion to create conditions of its choosing. The insurgency is a consequence of U.S. policy. The weakness of the Iraqi government is a consequence of our policy. The non-existent Iraqi reconstruction is a consequence of U.S. policy.

As for a timetable for withdrawal, the U.S. should not set such a timetable. The Iraqi government should set such a timetable. Hello, Matthew!!! Are you awake? I will repeat myself: The Iraqi government should set a timetable for U.S. withdrawal. They are sovereign. They are in charge of their own country. The legitimacy of the Iraqi government requires that they set such a timetable.

Matthew Yglesias: Vast Grace Church Media Conspiracy

Matthew Yglesias: Vast Grace Church Media Conspiracy: "Vast Grace Church Media Conspiracy"

First, young Matt reminds us that he born to the purple, part of the "ruling class" elite -- something he does two-three times a week. How many times do we have to be reminded that he went to Harvard, to Dalton, (and now) to Grace Church School? That he has known some really, really rich people?

What puts him into these moods, do you think? The wonders of blogdom being what they are, we have a clue in his previous post, and my next. He's been thinking "seriously" about foreign policy, again: wondering about what the right Iraq policy would be. That would make anyone feel all "ruling class".

Matthew Yglesias: Vast Grace Church Media Conspiracy

Matthew Yglesias: Vast Grace Church Media Conspiracy: "Vast Grace Church Media Conspiracy"

First, young Matt reminds us that he born to the purple, part of the "ruling class" elite -- something he does two-three times a week. How many times do we have to be reminded that he went to Harvard, to Dalton, (and now) to Grace Church School? That he has known some really, really rich people?

What puts him into these moods, do you think? The wonders of blogdom being what they are, we have a clue in his previous post, and my next. He's been thinking "seriously" about foreign policy, again: wondering about what the right Iraq policy would be. That would make anyone feel all "ruling class".

Monday, March 28, 2005

Life as We Don't Know It (washingtonpost.com)

Life as We Don't Know It (washingtonpost.com): "Bush's motive for pushing so hard on Social Security reform is more mysterious. But the possibility of idealism must be entertained, because any cynical motive for threatening Social Security seems so far-fetched. "

Once again, we have a liberal moron, in the person of Michael Kinsley, speculating about Bush's motives.

We are doomed, if leading Democrats and liberals continue this kind of confusion.

Hello, Michael! Bush's goal in phasing out Social Security is the same as his goal in pressing for tax cut after tax cut, the same as his goal in every other of policy -- redistribute income and wealth and power from the poor and middle class to the very wealthy and large corporations.

WAKE UP, you morons!

Republicans are disciplined in characterizing Democratic proposals and positions, but Democrats think that wondering aloud and total ignorance of recent history are a strategy.

The Independent Florida Alligator

The Independent Florida Alligator
"According to a legislative staff analysis of the bill, the law would give students who think their beliefs are not being respected legal standing to sue professors and universities.

"Students who believe their professor is singling them out for “public ridicule” – for instance, when professors use the Socratic method to force students to explain their theories in class – would also be given the right to sue.

" "Some professors say, ‘Evolution is a fact. I don’t want to hear about Intelligent Design (a creationist theory), and if you don’t like it, there’s the door,’” Baxley said, citing one example when he thought a student should sue. "

Is a significant portion of the Republican Party and the American population, simply insane?

All of a sudden the second amendment is looking real good to me.

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps? (Richard Stevenson Takes Another Dive Edition)

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps? (Richard Stevenson Takes Another Dive Edition): "That the proposal winds up transfering $1.1 trillion of wealth from the average taxpayer to the upper middle and upper classes also, I am told, came as a surprise to Blahous."

Professor Brad recently gave some good advice to students, without enough time to revise their written work: he advised them to take their last paragraph and cut and paste to make it their first paragraph.

If he would do so here, he would save everyone a lot of grief. The headline on his post makes it sound like he's going to whine about the incompetence of New York Times political/economics reporting for the 527th time. In fact, most of the post is Brad showing off his analysis of Bush's non-proposal on Social Security, by way of demonstrating that Bush's main policy guy on Social Security is an ignoramus.

Political liberals luv analyzing what Republicans say, and the more centrist their politics, the more the luv it. Unfortunately, most people don't have the patience to wade thru the crap to get to the bottom line.

Republicans are never going to acknowledge that their Social Security proposal is designed to transfer wealth from the poor and middle class to the wealthy. But, come on, when has any Bush policy be designed or intended to do anything else. (I am talking about polices, which actually get implemented, not compassionate conservative B.S.).

If Democrats are going to win, they need to expose Republican policy for what it is, front and center: class warfare of the very rich on everyone else.

Liberal is not the only "dirty word" in politics: strike back edition

Scripting News: 3/28/2005: "on Saturday night at dinner, when one of our companions, a man who considers himself a conservative, in the mold of Limbaugh, DeLay or Hannity, a death penalty proponent who feels deeply for the parents of Terri Schiavo, used the L-word in an argument, I said 'Wait a minute, that's a code-word that means, weak effeminate, etc.' I told him if he's going to talk about that, I'm going to expose him for what he is, an emulator of loutish, idiotic talk show hosts who say they're conservatives, but come on, they're not conservative, they're idiots who got a gig that pays them for being idiotic. The stupider they are the more they make. Competence in their work is incompetence everywhere else!

It worked."

Angry Bear: California Housing Bubble about to burst???

Angry Bear

For those of us, who have anticipated that re-electing Bush would have dire consequences, the temptation to believe in the coming of a Perfect Storm of political and economic disaster is increasingly strong.

One element of that impending disaster is the bubble in real estate, which is huge, and whose bursting will be consequential.

For those of us fearing the Perfect Storm, the bursting of the housing bubble, which is likely to be set off by an increase in interest rates, is likely to be more consequential, because it will coincide with a series of other political and economic unfortunate events.

Sunday, March 27, 2005

Hullabaloo

Hullabaloo: "The only problem is that in practice, the pro-life crowd doesn't take a pro-life absolutist view on [any key issue].

"On abortion, which they call murder, they do not believe that the woman who has an abortion should be charged with a crime, which makes no sense. Many of them make an exception in the case of rape of incest, which also makes no sense if abortion is murder.

"They do not believe that life support should be kept in place in all circumstances, just certain ones. If it is muder then there really cannot be any situation in which taking a person off life support or denying them a feeding tube ('a natural death') would be ok.

"They believe that stem cell research should be banned because the embryo is a life, but they have nothing to say about the people who fertilize many eggs in the in vitro process which then are either frozen for no use or discarded.

"When it comes to the death penalty, many of these same people are arguing for fewer legal rights for the accused, even in the case of evidence of actual innocence, so the idea of 'innocent' life doesn't hold water either.

"As Matt [Yglesias] makes clear, the liberal position about freedom of choice is not moral relativism. But I would argue that a cafeteria moralism that uses the 'life' issue as a cudgel in random situations in which one disagrees with individual decisions is. "

Relativism is exactly what the Right is guilty of. These pro-Death Penalty, pro-Torture Conservatives have no morality. What they have is an argument, which they use to beat others about the head and shoulders.

The argument that "life" ought to be a bright line, which keeps us from bad behavior is a pretty good argument. I happen to think it is wrong, and best subjected to ridicule, to expose its deficiencies. But, only some of its advocates are sincere, and that is the more important point.

The truth is that many "Pro-Life" leaders are offering one slippery slope in trade for another. The "Pro-Life" slippery slope leads downhill toward authoritarianism, with all of its attendant evils. The "Pro-Choice" slippery slope has its pitfalls as well. Liberals would be ill-advised to deny that mistakes will be made, etc. The "Pro-Choice" slippery slope, however, is the path to responsible behavior.

Saturday, March 26, 2005

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley

What he said.

There's a dawning awareness, I think, that the U.S. may be heading toward its comeuppance -- a kind of perfect storm of political and economic disaster. One element consists of the economic imbalances created by irresponsible economic policy.

Majikthise : The Left and Terri Schiavo

Majikthise : The Left and Terri Schiavo

Here is the definitive liberal narrative of the Shiavo case. Matthew Yglesias, eat your wimpy heart out! This woman can write!

Matthew Yglesias: Relativism and Choice

Matthew Yglesias: Relativism and Choice: "we would do well to keep in mind that our disagreement with our opponents really is a disagreement about deep moral issues (in what sense is life sacred?) and not really about liberty or lack thereof. "

Oh, Please Matthew!

The agenda of the Right is authoritarian. The "Pro-Life" movement has its sincere adherenets, I am sure. There's no doubt in my mind that there are many, who find the absolute moral principles, and the drama associated with them, thrilling and a relief from the depressing train of life's daily stress and strain, and unimportance.

But, politically, the "Pro-Life" movement is authoritarian in its purposes. It is the counter-Revolution in motion, whose views on life and sex are aimed at restoring the ancient regime, where all sexual intercourse was prohibited, except that licensed by the State and blessed by the Church, where all the power of life and death was centralized in State and Church. These are people, who are opposed to birth control, who are opposed to homosexuality. And, these, by and large, are people, who are in favor of the death penalty. So much for the sanctity of life.

For liberals, the central moral value is individual consciousness and choice. It is the spirit manifest in conscious experience and autonomous choice, which ought to be accorded dignity and rights in a political world, which should be supported and aided in all its legitimate aspirations, and restrained in its destructive potential.

This dispute is about liberty. It is about whether the Law shall honor, respect and support individual choice, or whether the Law should "protect" biological life in some narrow technical sense, and, in so doing, authorize Government to trample individual choice underfoot.

The "Pro-Life" movement has a powerful and persuasive argument -- that only a bright line drawn around life defined in a strict technical, biological sense, will be a sufficiently compelling rule, to prevent horrifying behavior and policy. And, they are using that powerful and persuasive argument like a club in a political struggle aimed at restoring a authoritarian regime.

Liberals should be honest and truthful about the consequences of freedom, consequences, which include mistakes. Human choice is inevitable. Authoritarianism does not take away human choice; it only centralizes choice in the hands of the corrupt and the incompetent; authoritarianism increases the probability that choices will be irresponsible, callous and foolish.

Friday, March 25, 2005

Mark A. R. Kleiman

Mark A. R. Kleiman: "So here's an exercise I commend to you, dear reader: once a day, try to believe something that you would prefer not to believe, and that will make the people you normally agree with doubt your loyalty to the cause.

As Socrates says, it's better to disagree with your friends than to disagree with the universe."

Hmmm.

Friday, March 18, 2005

Talking Points Memo: by Harry Shearer

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: "Although I have absolutely no inteest in polls and surveys, I would be interested in more open debate about the level of risk most people would actually like to assume."

Let's have some "open debate" on how many elderly homeless we are willing to have. Risk for the individual is certainty to large groups. Whatever Bush eventually proposes -- the risk can quantitatively expressed in terms of exactly how many people can expect to be dead broke at 90 years of age.

If Democrats want to win these fights, they need to stop being so abstract. "the level of risk most people would actually like to assume" is absolutely hopeless.

The intent of Bush's plan is not to create a more dynamic society; it is to transfer income and wealth from the poor and middle class to the wealthiest 0.2% The effect of increasing the "risk" to which the poor and middle class are exposed is to reduce their wealth and power relative to very, very wealthy. And, that -- and that alone -- is Bush's goal.

Majikthise : New blog game: Give Mutiliation a Chance

Majikthise : New blog game: Give Mutiliation a Chance: "New blog game: Give Mutiliation a Chance"

Ah, derision. I like it. You go, girl.

(And, they say, girl bloggers don't like to dish it out. Hah! She's enjoying this.)

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Mark A. R. Kleiman on cruelty

Mark A. R. Kleiman: "Prisons, too, are places of organized cruelty -- much of it, it might be added, irrelevant to the task of crime control -- and we currently send people to prison on considerably less cogent evidence than is required for a death sentence or would be required for a sentence of death-by-torment. "

Yes, they are, or so I have been given to understand, and more's the pity. I take some small comfort in the notion, that they are not officially supposed to be purposely cruel, in the sense that torture is purposefully cruel. Even the death penalty in this country is not supposed to be administered cruelly. Electric chairs are probably torturous, but they were intended to be humanely quick; lethal injection is minimally cruel, or is chosen as a method for that reason, at least.

I am not impressed by Mark's arguments from (possible) innocence, however. If torturing a human being is wrong, the wrong conduct of that person does not make it right for some other person to do the same. The guilt or innocence of the victim of torture, in some other circumstance, seems to me to be irrelevant to whether torture is right or should be legal.

I am aware of arguments from self-defense. I am not arguing for a morality which is "absolute" with respect to context. Killing another human being is not always wrong, or always equally wrong. Killing in self-defense stands as an example.

Some would have it that John's attempt to kill Bob, justifies Bob killing John, but that's not the way the self-defense justification works. Just so, that some evil person killed a child, cruelly, does not justify a person in authority killing the evil person. The conduct of a person in a position of authority ought not to be privileged in such a way.

It is the privileging of authority figures, even of the whole community, to which I object. This conduct is wrong, and we restrain everyone against it, but you are guilty, and so we release the restraints, we drop society's protection of you, and simultaneously we release the restraints from everyone else. This is not right. If it was wrong for Bob, to do it, it is wrong for the State to do it.

Scalia, in his discussion of the death penalty cited in an earlier post, has it right when he connects squemishness over the death penalty to the rise of democratic government. In a Democracy, as Mark observes, we are all of us responsible for what is done in our name. Scalia's solution is typical; he wants to bring back the divine right of kings, to privilege authority as divinely granted. Such a silly pretense, such narcissism! Scalia's is not an honorable escape: we govern ourselves, and can claim no divine privilege to justify the death penalty or any other corporal punishment.

Matthew Yglesias: Torture and Cruelty

Matthew Yglesias: Torture and Cruelty: "I'm open to the possibility that for certain kinds of offenses, at least, it might make more sense to give somebody a few lashes rather than send them to prison. It would be cheaper than incareration, and the cruelty of the punishment would be under the direct control of the judge. Ten lashes is ten lashes, while the badness of a person's experience in prison depends, in part, on a lot factors other than the mere severity of the sentence. "

I find myself, unexpectedly, a moral absolutist, with regard to the law. I do not think people should be subject to corporal punishment, at all. It is wrong, when done privately, and wrong when done by the State. The State should not become an agent of brutality.

Inevitably, the subject of spanking comes up. I am not a parent, or overly fond of children under the age of 35, but I have had responsibility for a few of the wee ones, on occasion. Adults need to be in charge, and adults will have to exercise physical coercion, on occasion, to maintain control of children. Spanking can be useful in this context, but I believe that spanking should always be done with the bare palm. That way, the parent (spanking) knows exactly how much he is actually hurting the child; in fact, the parent's hand will be in more pain than the child's bottom. That's the only way the parent can truly remain in control.

And, that's why Matthew's "idea" that a judge can or would "control" the administration of pain, as punishment, is so foolish. The only way to "control" the administration of pain is to feel the pain yourself. Anything else lacks both the proper incentive and the proper degree of feedback. A parent, spanking with her open, naked palm has both the proper incentive and the feedback. A judge, watching indifferently, a brutal infliction of pain, which would be morally reprehensible in any other context has neither necessary feedback or incentive.

Amazon.com: Books: Wilson's War : How Woodrow Wilson's Great Blunder Led to Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, and World WarII

Amazon.com: Books: Wilson's War : How Woodrow Wilson's Great Blunder Led to Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, and World WarII

A lot of what passes for reason on the right, involves just the kind of confusion between narrative causality and social causality, which underlies the thesis of this book. It is a bit more ridiculous in this case, than in some others, though, still a bit less ridiculous, for Americans, at least, than the closely allied view that the Confederate South was Right.

In narrative causality, all you need is a plausible sequence of events -- imaginary though they may be -- to draw the reader into an hypnotic trance, where whatever fantasy you are spinning out, seems realistic, in the same way that a good novel is realistic. In the classic Confederate version, it is the inconceivable failure at Gettysburg; if only Pickett's Charge had scattered the cowardly Yankees, then Marse Robert would have ridden on in triumph, and a gleaming Conferacy would have achieved its rightful independence, and everyone, even the darkies, would be inconceivably happy today. There would have been none of the horrors of big government in the 20th century -- no war against the Kaiser, no Social Security or Interstate Highway System or income tax to mar our idyllic existence.

The classic riposte to latter-day Confederates rehashing Gettysburg has always been Pickett's own answer to the question of who was responsible for the Confederate defeat at Gettysburg: "I believe the Union Army had something to do with it."

Blaming the rise of Hitler and the success of Russian Communism on Woodrow Wilson is a clever rhetorical strategy, but it can be supported only by the most tendentious kind of narrative causality. Wilson, in fact, was trying very hard to head off the rise of Hitler, by creating democratic national States and international institutions. It is easy to be cynical about Wilson's efforts, but Wilson failed, even by his own lights. The British and the French "punished" Germany, and the U.S. never joined the League. Clemenceau succeeded, gaining reparations, German disarmament and humiliation, a Maginot line and renewed guarantees of Belgian neutrality, a Little Entente against Germany doubling as a cordon sanitaire against the Soviet Union, etc. That all turned out so well!

The broad truth is that World War I was about the final collapse of the feudal order and the monarchical and aristocratic orders, which went with it. Wilson fully understood that much, and it was with that understanding, that he proposed fashioning a new world order. He was opposed by men of lesser vision, who insisted on trying to restore the old world order to an extent, which was unwise in the extreme. The conservatives won the peace, so to speak, and the Second World War was a foreseeable consequence of conservative politics and policies. The conservatives were opposed by men like Wilson and Keynes, but to no avail. The Second World War turned out so much better, because liberals and progressives and internationlists were in charge of the peace. The reactionary conservative policies and politics, which had given us two World Wars, a Great Depression and sixty years of Jim Crow, were as thoroughly discredited in the 1950's as the (again, conservative) policy of 1930's appeasment.

Cruelty no longer so unusual

Here is Eugene Volokh, of the blog, The Volokh Conspiracy -, esteemed UCLA law professor, advocating amending the Constitution to sanction punishments, which can only be termed medieval. Volokh is no Glenn Reynolds, though he has similar political sentiments and a similar inclination to be ignorantly snarky, an inclination, which is only sometimes redeemed by careful reasoning.

Just for the record, I will say why punishing even a convicted serial murderer of children by publicly flogging, stabbing and then slow throttling, is not a good idea. It is simply this: what this man did to children was wrong; the State doing it to him is also wrong. This is not simply an abstract point. It is the difference between law, as fair and reasonable, and law as authoritarian.

Volokh's view derives not just from his personal atavistic streak, but from his authoritarian views on law and politics. An authoritarian's view of right and wrong, good and evil, is simple. What is done to me, is wrong; what is done to others, may be right. It is the view of a Serb, who sees a Croat killing a Serb as murder, and a Serb killing a Croat, as justifiable. (My apologies to the enlightened Serbs of the world; I could have used as an example, white American Southerners of the 1950's, who could not bring themselves to convict the murderers of negroes.)

Such a personal view of good and evil is understandable, but it is ultimately incompatible with the rule of law. What the Iranian authorities did to the convicted serial rapist/murderer was a (moral) crime, and ought to have been a legal crime, for the same, basic reasons, that what the murderer did to the children, who were his victims, was a moral and legal crime.

The view that what you did (to me and mine) was so heinous, that I am, morally and legally, released from any constraint against doing the same to you, is the foundation for the Bush Administration policy on torture and imprisonment without trial.

It can be given the formal sanction of law, I suppose, by the simple expedient of specious reasoning, or even by amending the law. I am sure the Iranians have laws mandating at least some of the punishments and humiliations, which they inflicted. The Bushies have the window-dressing of their bald assertions of Presidential authority and the invention of novel categories (e.g. illegal enemy combatant). But, fundamentally, this is about overthrowing the rule of law in favor of authoritarianism. What matters is not what you do, per se, but whether you have the authority to do it.

The narcissism at the heart of authoritarianism can be disguised by projecting the source of law away from ourselves and onto God. Behold, Scalia, Roman Catholic and Justice of the United States Supreme Court:

The death penalty is undoubtedly wrong unless one accords to the state a scope of moral action that goes beyond what is permitted to the individual. In my view, the major impetus behind modern aversion to the death penalty is the equation of private morality with governmental morality. This is a predictable (though I believe erroneous and regrettable) reaction to modern, democratic self–government. Few doubted the morality of the death penalty in the age that believed in the divine right of kings.

Do you see where Scalia is going with this? Can't believe it? Well, grow up. That's exactly where he's going. A Justice of the United States Supreme Court has declared himself opposed to democratic self-government and in favor of the divine right of kings.

You thought the Republicans just wanted to repeal the New Deal? Hah! These guys want to repeal the Enlightenment, and double-quick, thank you.

Why NPR?

Matthew Yglesias: Why NPR?: "NPR feels a special need to bend over backwards to appease conservative critics. In a market environment, something would arise to serve the NPR market niche that actually needed to serve its market in order to survive. The resulting situation would, I think, make everyone happier."

The deep issue, here, has always been whether there would be any alternative to advertising-supported broadcasting. To a large extent, the conservative campaign -- now largely successful in my view -- against public broadcasting, has been a subversive one, aimed at making public broadcasting over into just another advertising-supported outlet. The "market" an advertising-supported broadcaster or publisher "serves" is large-scale, corporate business, and the character of its offerings is dictated by that reality. Seeking an audience or a readership is decidedly secondary. There have been instances of magazine editors, who have launched, for example, highly "successful" car magazines or teen magazines, which have found fervent audiences; those efforts have failed miserably, however, because businesses are unwilling to advertise in a car magazine, which isn't in the tank for car makers, or a teen magazine, which speaks frankly and realistically about sex instead of hyping cosmetics.

Having outlets for news and information, which are not advertising-supported, and therefore not controlled by and for corporate business, is highly desirable, but, probably a lost cause. PBS became advertising-supported a long-time ago. That programs like the News Hour are supported by right-wing institutions, like the James M Olin Foundation, just reinforces the larger reality.

The American people are going to get the Media and the Politics and Government, they are willing to pay for, and the fact is, a majority would rather get crap for "free", provided by the corporate right-wing, than pony up for something that genuinely served their interest. Not enough people are even willing to pay for TIVO! So, now TIVO will survive by serving us advertising. Egad.

The logical policy prescription would be heavy taxes on advertising of all kinds. Most people in this country are employed in marketing and salesmanship of one kind or another. That's more than 50%, whose "work" is not actually making anything of value, but, rather, just annoying each other as well as everyone else. Reduce the noise generation, and reallocate resources, and we could all be enjoying a quieter life, and six weeks of vacation a year, and still have the same amount of stuff in our lives. And, we might even end up with a liberal media!

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Mark A. R. Kleiman: I don't have to pay a lot for this medical care, but I want to.

Mark A. R. Kleiman: "David Cutler asks a perfectly reasonable question: What's wrong with paying a big chunk of your income for high-quality medical care? The idea of paying health-care providers for actually delivering high-quality care, and making that rather than cost control the central management idea of the nation's health care system, is intuitively appealing. "

One aspect of productivity growth is that all products and services become cheaper, just as all resources become more expensive. Productivity growth makes products and services we consume cheaper (in terms of the work-time it takes to earn them), but it makes all the resources used to make those products and services more expensive. Wages and incomes rise, rents and home prices rise, etc.

When productivity rises especially fast in a particular industry, the price of the goods and services it produces, falls. When productivity lags, the price of those goods rise, and the incentives to find ways to improve productivity increase.

When incomes rise, people want to consume more of the good things in life; goods for which demand rises with increases in income, are called, by economists "superior goods." Goods for which demand falls with an increase in income are called "inferior."

There's something to the proposition that as incomes rise, people will want to spend more on quality health care.

The elephant in the room is that demand is not driving the rise in health care costs. There's been a steady ratcheting up in health care costs. People are spending more on some aspects of health care, because they want to -- replacing hips, fixing noses, removing cataracts. But, mostly health care costs have been rising inexorably for decades, with little benefit for consumers.

Track the cost of mending a broken arm. Has it gone down or up? (I don't know, but I would not bet a penny on, "gone down." Would you?) There have been all sorts of innovations, which, in any other industry, would have been applied to improve productivity. I'm talking about everything from MRIs to clever bandages. In health care, every innovation appears to simply add to the cost.

Monday, March 14, 2005

History for Dummies - The troubling popularity of The Politically Incorrect Guide to American History. By David Greenberg

History for Dummies - The troubling popularity of The Politically Incorrect Guide to American History. By David Greenberg

If Greg Mankiw's political presentation of economics (see below) is merely deceptive, others on the right are not so scrupulous. Consider right-wing "history" or right-wing biology ("intelligent design").

Everywhere these crazy people are choosing beliefs they like, which let them feel good, over any appreciation of reality. And, apparently, they are the voting majority, or close enough that the Republican vote fraud machine can hold onto power.

Sunday, March 13, 2005

Greg Mankiw is a hack!

From Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal note is taken of Greg Mankiw's article in The New Republic, advocating for Bush's Social Security phase-out.

Professor Mankiw, late of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers and a professor at Harvard, is also the author of one of the most popular introductory college texts on Economics (a successor among textbooks to the redoubtable Paul Samuelson's classic, among others).

Mankiw is a lying hack of an economist, which is another way of saying that he is a conservative. He subtitles his TNR piece, "Why Democrats Oppose Bush." Rather than trying to advocate for Bush's horrific plan in a straightforward way, which is to say, to disclose to the readers of the TNR why right-wing Republicans favor Bush's effort to phase-out Social Security, he instead chooses to engage in snarky mind-reading.

What pisses me off about this, is that I think he betrays his professional duty as a economics professor, to teach authoritatively and honestly. Economics, as a body of knowledge, has clearly established some pretty good rationales for why insurance (and risk-mitigation, generally) is economically valuable, and why the market provision of insurance often fails systematically, in ways, which government can overcome by, for example, making insurance compulsory. I will not go into the details, but I will claim that such details are NOT controversial as a matter of professional/scientific knowledge. You can find them in any decent textbook.

Social Security is a classic example of government-mandated insurance. Everyone (almost) pays into the system, and everyone is covered. Bush wants to convert this insurance program into a investment savings plan. Bush's main argument appears to be that as an investment savings plan, Social Security pretty much sucks, which is true. But, as an insurance scheme, Bush's investment savings plan also pretty much sucks. Insurance and savings are not the same thing. The closest private sector analogue to Social Security would be whole life insurance, where you pay premiums for x number of years, and if you die before the policy "matures" your heirs get a guaranteed payout, but if you last until the policy "matures", you get some payout. As an investment vehicle, whole-life policies suck, but, unlike savings or stock market investments, it pays quite well in the event of your premature death or dismemberment. Social Security sucks as an investment vehicle for some of the same reasons.

Bush wants to phase-out Social Security because such a phase-out will transfer considerable wealth and income from poor and middle-class folks to rich people. His plan would, generally, be a moderately good deal for people with high incomes and/or considerable personal wealth. His plan would, generally, be a very bad deal for people with less than the average income (in other words, for the majority of people -- if you need me to explain how it is that the majority of people have less than average income, you are too dumb to vote.)

Mankiw could write an article explaining why Bush wants to phase-out Social Security. That is, he could write an article explaining that both he and Bush think rich people should be made considerably richer at the expense of poor and middle-class losers. He cannot write this in a straightforward way, of course, because, if he did, such honesty would attract attention even in a journal of minimal circulation like TNR, and Bush's plan to phase-out Social Security would sink like an anvil.

So, instead of writing about why Republicans, like himself, favor this horrific plan -- something he is in a position to know something about -- he chooses to write about something, which requires mind-reading abilities, which are clearly beyond his psychic powers, i.e. why Democrats oppose it. His mind-reading, unsurprisingly, is not flattering to Democrats.

As an economist, Mankiw, of course, knows perfectly well that Social Security, as an insurance scheme, has a perfectly fine rationale, blessed, in general, by the mainstream economics, which it is his day job to teach and write. After listing two "reasons" Democrats oppose Bush, which "reasons" are simply gratuitous insults, he gets to the insurance thing. This is how he chooses to put it:

"The third reason for the left's opposition to personal accounts is... Democrats are more averse to an economic system in which people play a larger role in taking care of themselves...."

Isn't that sweet? Under Bush's plan, a fairly large number of people would be made destitute in their old age. But, what Democrats are averse to is not the certain prospect of a larger number of destitute old people, but that people might take a larger role in taking care of themselves.

Crooked Timber � � Propaganda and advertising

Crooked Timber � � Propaganda and advertising

"Of course, reprinting press releases with minimal editing has been a standby of lazy journalists for decades. But the standard press release story opens with what is presented as a paraphrase of a quote “In Washington today, Senator X criticised the neglect of problem Y …” or whatever. Even if the reader is led to imagine that the statement was actually made to an audience of reporters, there’s no serious deception . . . .

But the video news release goes way beyond this. The closest analog in the print world is those supplements, designed to look like news, with “advertisement” in small print at the bottom of the page."

Not just "lazy" journalism, but standard journalism. 90% of the editorial content of the Wall St. Journal, for example, is exactly this sort of barely edited press release. And, a large part of what we take to be television news is this kind of video press release.

This goes directly to the incompetence of the mass media, which has become such an essential tool of the Republican right-wing. Or, perhaps, more precisely, the tool of the corporate executive-class, which has begun building a fascist State in its own interest. The Corporate Right-Wing Media is the creature of that class, and the Republican Party is almost completely under its control.

Why are there blue-collar Republicans?

CJR Daily: Interview with Laurie Garrett, late of Newsday:
I have no idea, other that what appears in this article, who Laurie Garrett is, but she said some interesting things in the linked interview.

"A colleague of mine that used to be at Newsday and is now at Time magazine described this by saying that she had grown up in a working-class Irish-American family in Brooklyn. All of her brothers and sisters were either cops or firefighters or nurses. And she was the one that they all thought was an oddball because she was a writer. She said there came a day in the newsroom when a little light bulb went off in her head and she suddenly understood why fundamentally she was always disagreeing with other reporters and editors and had a different instinct about where to go with a specific story. And it was because one of them said in the newsroom, 'How could anybody be a working stiff and a Republican?' And she realized that she had certainly grown up around working-stiff Republicans and here was a newsroom full of people who absolutely couldn't comprehend how any one individual could put those two ways of thinking together. Which meant that, of course, they couldn't understand who elected George Bush."

I don't understand it, either. At least not entirely. I have a sister, who won't admit she votes Republican, and a neice, who will admit it. And, basically, the reason is that they are repulsed by the people they see at the Supermarket, using food stamps. My sister's attitude is that she and her family have worked hard, and been responsible, and those "other people" have not. What bugged my sister about liberal democratic programs, at least liberal democratic programs post-LBJ, is that those programs were never there to help her and her family.

I know a lot of urban, liberal democrats regard this whole attitude as racist, and they are not entirely wrong. Racism figures in here, but not in a single, simple way. The poor people my sister sees at the Supermarket are just as white as she is, and most of the few people of mixed race she knows are middle-class relatives of people she grew up with (i.e., within the scope of her mental map of people like herself, as opposed to the poor people at the Supermarket, she looks down on). And, no that's not class-ism, either. (Is class-ism a word?) In rural and small-town Michigan, there is severe and persistent economic stratification, but still little in the way of social class. The whole "affirmative action" debate was enormously damaging to the reputation of the Democratic Party, with people like my sister, though, because it reinforced the idea that the Democrats were not interested in people like her.

Laurie Garrett, quoted above, concluded her musing, with this: "They couldn't understand how the Republican Party fundamentally transformed itself. And it was part-and-parcel of not having grown up among people who were hard-working stiffs but might have ideas and ways of looking at the world that you disagreed with." In other words, her liberal, upper middle-class, suburban colleagues could not understand the transformation of the Republican Party, because they could not understand the Republican working stiff. If this were 1992, I would agree with Laurie. The Republican Party's successes of the 1990's were built on the alienation of the working class from the liberalism of the Democratic Party. But, hey, Laurie, it is 2005, and the Republican Party is treating the broad American middle-class as old growth forest, ripe for clear-cutting to benefit giant corporations and the very, very wealthy.

To put it more bluntly, the liberalism of the Democratic Party is based on the empathy and altruism of white, well-educated, mostly prosperous folks. These people are concerned, in a certain way, with political ideals and with the environment and with the social climate. They want government to be fair and to help poor people, etc. And, guess what? The less prosperous also want government to be fair and to help the common people; the only difference is that they don't want government help to exclude themselves or be focused on "other" people, particularly "other" people, who are not struggling to work hard and take care of themselves.

For people, who are struggling, there's a wedge available in their political psychology; its called resentment. They resent others, whose economic circumstances are quite different from their own. Potentially, I suppose, they resent the very rich. But, in modern American politics, they also resent those, who, apparently, are not trying. For liberals, the "poor" are oppressed and suffering. But, for many Americans the "poor" are undisciplined, very fat people, who live in unkempt neighborhoods, and have a lot of the same junk appliances and cheap cotton clothing, which they, themselves do, but don't mow their lawns and and don't raise their kids right. The self-disciplined, hard-working, aspiring mass of middle America really, really resents it, when you threaten their sense of achievement, efficacy and self-reliance.

Democrats in the 1970's and 1980's were mostly tone-deaf. Bill Clinton got it, but many Democrats did not. That's why you heard Bill talk about making sure average people, who "worked hard and played by the rules," should be protected and rewarded. Unfortunately, Bill O'Reilly also got it, but put his insight to less admirable use.

But, here's the rub: now it is 2005. And, the Republicans really are attacking the achievements, efficacy and self-reliance of the middle class. Not their "sense of" of same, but the actual goods. And, I am wondering when, if ever, they are going to wake up.

It is, by no means, assured that the American middle class will wake up. A large part of the white South has been voting its stupid-ass resentments for 150 years, and is now the solid base of the Republican Party, apparently ignorant of or indifferent to, the extent that they are being used and abused by BushCo.

Saturday, March 12, 2005

House Ethics Panel in Gridlock (washingtonpost.com)

after Legal Fiction
House Ethics Panel in Gridlock (washingtonpost.com): "The House, facing new controversy about the travel of Majority Leader Tom DeLay and other lawmakers, was left last night with no mechanism for investigating improper behavior by its members when Democrats shut down the ethics committee by refusing to accept Republican rules changes that restrict the panel's power."

Thursday, March 10, 2005

The Washington Monthly: Highway Tolls

The Washington Monthly

This used to be a free country. Past tense. And, here's the proof. The Republicans are making room for tolls on the Interstate Highway System. The IHS is paid for by the gas tax, which our oil company executive President does not want to raise, and tolls used to be a big no-no, on gas-tax financed highways.

The bozos, who inhabit econ depts, like to think "congestion tolls" in urban areas are an "interesting idea."

There are two useful points to be made about "congestion tolls":

1. They only make economic sense for truly scarce resources, like a bridge or a tunnel.
2. For ordinary highways and streets, the only effect of a congestion toll is to displace the congestion from one street to another.
3. If you are rich, you get to buy your way on to a private highway; let the peons use the "free" highways. (Now, you begin to understand why Republicans like it, so much.)
4. If you put a tax on something, you get less of it; if you put a price on something, you get more of it. Put a price on congestion, you will get more of it, not less. This is demonstrated by (california) Orange County's toll roads; the local highway departments are actually barred for a terms of years (extending up to 50), from relieving the congestion, which makes the toll roads attractive and profitable. Sweeet!

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

The Future of the Republican Party is Now

The Washington Monthly: "this is literally a tax bill that openly cuts taxes on the rich and raises them on both the poor and the middle class "

Considering the bankruptcy bill making its way thru Congress, increasing the regressivity of the tax system, will seem positively liberal.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

Brad DeLong's Website

Brad DeLong's Website: Quoting the Dead Parrot Society: "If the government issues bonds to allow people to buy stocks with Social Security taxes, the private sector will have to buy bonds and sell stocks. In net, these effects likely offset dollar for dollar. "

Brad's own position is: "My position is that we really don't know what the impact of having the Treasury sell $4.5 trillion more of government bonds and then having individuals invest that $4.5 trillion in their private Social Security accounts will be. I would bet that there's at least a 50-50 chance that it will be a wash as far as national savings is concerned. I would also bet that there's at least a 20% chance that it will shrink national savings significantly--that people will regard their private accounts as relatively close substitutes for their 401(k)s and other assets, and so reduce the amounts they commit to funding their other retirement savings."

What you might call the optimistic salesman's view is that, if you borrow a $100 to invest in the stock market, you take a chance on ending up a good deal richer -- that the $100 in debt will remain, roughly a $100 in debt, but the $100 in equity ownership "might" grow into $200. [Of course, the pessimistic view would be that it might disappear altogether.]

Whether the Federal government's borrowing of $4.5 billion results in an increase in "national savings" would depend, critically, on who bought that debt.

The whole macroeconomic discussion of "savings" makes me slightly nuts at the best of times, because it is so likely to deteriorate into nonsense. In common language, "savings" can mean both refraining from spending (a flow, sort of) and the accumulation of financial wealth (a stock). Very often, analysis of savings has a further confusing element: a tendency to identify savings with investment.

Saturday, March 05, 2005

CNN.com - Bush pardons bootlegger and seven others - Mar 4, 2005

CNN.com - Bush pardons bootlegger and seven others - Mar 4, 2005

There was not a single person on the list, who could be still serving a sentence. Who are these people, and why did they want pardons?

Are these political contributors or the family and friends of contributors, whose status as felons is handicapping their lives or something?

Mark A. R. Kleiman

Mark A. R. Kleiman: "What I'm sure of is that a highly unequal distribution of income, such as we have now to an increasing extent, reduces overall well-being (due to the diminishing marginal utility of income), damages prospects for future growth (both by worsening the effects of capital-market imperfections that make it hard for poor people with high ability to finance their human-capital investments and by increasing the number of children brought up in poverty), increases social tension and crime, and (at the top) threatens to convert a republic into a plutocracy."

That about sums it up. All done.

Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Ezra Klein: Battle Lines

Ezra Klein: Battle Lines: "whether we should return to the pre-New Deal era of Social Darwinism where citizens sink or swim under the uninterested gaze of a bored government"

Ezra -- so young and so cliched! -- Wake UP!

The Republican right-wing is not trying to return us anywhere. They are building the fascist State. They are trying to create a brave new world, where wealth and power belong to the very few, and their domination of the rest of us is unconstrained by government or any other force.

"Role of government" my ass. This is about the money and the power. This isn't about ideology, except insofar as ideology serves to disguise what is going on.